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Scenario Engine01:12:08 CST · v3.2.14

RUN: RA-20260217-042 · F-01 IPSEN TQ-12 · ALLOY 8620 · SECTION 0.42 IN

PROPOSED RECIPE MODIFICATIONS

Soak time +30 min

Boost CP −0.05%

Diffuse CP −0.03%

Temper 190 °C × 75 min

+Add modification

SELECTED CHANGE DETAILS

Parameter	Baseline	Proposed	Δ
Soak time	120 min	150 min	+30
Cycle time	4.2 hr	4.7 hr	+0.5

ACTIVE MODEL

v3 Carburizing Model1,132 training runsAlloy-filtered: 418ECD MAE ±0.0026 inHRC MAE ±0.9Retrained: 14 d ago

PREDICTED OUTCOMES

Metric	Baseline	Scenario	Δ	Conf
ECD @ 50 HRC	0.040 in	0.043 in	+0.003	96%
Surface HRC	61.2	61.8	+0.6	94%
Core HRC	38.8	39.2	+0.4	91%
Distortion	0.08 mm	0.09 mm	+0.01	88%
Cycle time	4.2 hr	4.7 hr	+0.5	99%
Throughput	4.3 loads/d	3.9 loads/d	−0.4	93%
Energy	1.82 kWh/kg	1.94 kWh/kg	+0.12	90%
Scrap risk	2.1%	1.4%	−0.7	84%

SIMILAR HISTORICAL CASES

Case ID	Alloy	Section	Action	Outcome	Match
HT-1827	8620	0.45 in	Soak +30 min	Pass	91%
HT-1694	8620	0.38 in	Soak +35 min	Pass	87%
HT-1553	9310	0.42 in	Soak +30 min	Pass	79%

Comparable sequences evaluated: 287 · Similarity threshold: 0.78

Cycle Design01:12:08 CST · fw 2.8.3

BATCH DETAILS

BatchHT-240317-A

PartSun gear

SteelAISI 8620

Section0.42 in

Load18 pcs / 1 basket

Test Coupon

FURNACE

UnitF-01 Ipsen TQ-12

AtmoCP control — Yes

HealthNominal

CUSTOMER SPECIFICATION

ECD0.040 in @ 50 HRC

Surface60–62 HRC

Distortion≤ 0.10 mm TIR

MODEL

v3 Carburizing AISI 8620

SIMILAR PAST JOBS

Case	Section	Target	Match	Result

—

MODEL SPECIFICATIONS

Model—

Training—

Alloy-filtered—

ECD MAE—

HRC MAE—

Retrained—

Firmware—

TEMPERATURE PROFILE

Awaiting compute

PREDICTED OUTCOMES

Metric	Predicted	Spec	Margin

RECIPE PARAMETERS

Phase	°C	Ramp	Soak	CP%

Drift and Failure Analysis01:14:22 CST · v3.2.14

Scrap / Rework Decision

RUN STATUS

Out of Spec — ECD over limit

BatchHT-240317-A

FurnaceF-01 Ipsen TQ-12

Alloy8620

Section0.42 in

Primary: ECD over limit

Secondary: Surface HRC high

Distortion: Within tolerance

MEASURED VS SPECIFICATION

Parameter	Actual	Spec	Δ
ECD @ 50 HRC	0.052 in	0.040 ± 0.003	+0.009
Surface HRC	64.1	60–62	+2.1
Core HRC	41.8	38–40	+1.8
Distortion	0.06 mm	≤ 0.10 TIR	OK

RECOMMENDED ACTION

Rework — Temper 190°C × 75 min

BASIS

ECD overshoot: 0.052 vs 0.043 max (+21%)Surface HRC: 64.1 vs 62 max (+2.1)Temper response: −2.0 to −3.0 HRC @ 180–205°CRework success: 87% (n=146)

IMPACT

Cycle time: +1.3 hrEnergy: +0.04 kWh/kgScrap avoidance: $1.8k–$2.6k

DECISION TREE TRACE

Alloy: 8620 · Section: 0.4–0.6 inPattern: ECD high → temperCases: 146 · Pass rate: 87%

Predictive Maintenance Alert

RUN STATUS

Within Spec — Pass

BatchHT-240402-B

FurnaceF-03 AFC 36×48

Alloy9310

Section0.50 in

Spec compliance: Pass

Risk classification: Elevated

EVIDENCE

Signal	Current	Threshold	Prior Fail Corr
Temp variability	+1.4%	>1.0%	12 failures
CP variance	0.028%	>0.025%	8 failures
Quench flow	−4%	−3–−6%	6 failures

Match confidence: 81%Matched sequences: 9/14

OPERATIONS CHECKLIST

Quench pump cavitation check

Zone 3 thermocouple recalibration

Atmosphere control loop tuning

FORECAST

Drift window: 3–5 runsFailure prob: 42% if uncorrected

CASEBASE

Total runs: 2,410Failure-tagged: 318Pattern-matched: 14 seqMean lead time: 4.2 runs

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